diff --git a/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex b/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex index 73d69e2..c288f74 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex @@ -36,33 +36,22 @@ %------------------------------------------------ \section{Introduction \& Overview} \input{./Sections/Intro.tex} +\input{./Sections/Background.tex} +\input{./Sections/Maps.tex} +\input{./Sections/Subsidy_Chart.tex} \input{./Sections/Key_Questions.tex} \input{./Sections/Bitcoin_Incentives.tex} \input{./Sections/Mining_Structure.tex} \input{./Sections/Mining_Model.tex} \input{./Sections/Mining_elast.tex} \input{./Sections/Reg_elas.tex} -\input{./Sections/Wyoming_Hookup.tex} \input{./Sections/Oil_Structure.tex} \input{./Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex} +\input{./Sections/Data.tex} +\input{./Sections/Results.tex} +\input{./Sections/Conclusion.tex} \section{Theory} -\section{History} -%\subsection{Key Events} -%\subsection{Subdistrict Formation} \section{Econometric Strategy} \section{Data} -\section{Results} -\input{./Sections/Bullets.tex} -\input{./Sections/Highlight.tex} -\input{./Sections/Columns.tex} - -%------------------------------------------------ -\input{./Sections/Table.tex} -\input{./Sections/Theorem.tex} -\input{./Sections/Figure.tex} -\input{./Sections/Fragile.tex} -\input{./Sections/bib.tex} -\input{./Sections/End.tex} - \end{document} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Hash/R-analysis.r b/Bitcoin/Hash/R-analysis.r index 2af33df..93b6774 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Hash/R-analysis.r +++ b/Bitcoin/Hash/R-analysis.r @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ library(tidyverse) library(lubridate) library(tidyquant) +library(stargazer) BTC <- tq_get("BTC-USD") hash <- read_csv("BCHAIN-HRATE.csv") %>% rename(date=Date,hash=Value) @@ -14,14 +15,25 @@ df$p_dif2 <- c(NA,diff(df$p)) df$down <- ifelse(0>df$p_dif2,1,0) #lag_dis <- 30*12 df <- df %>% arrange(date) -lag_dis <- 90 +lag_dis <- 30 df$pw <- df$p-lag(df$p,lag_dis) df$pw <- ifelse(df$pw==0,0.0001,df$pw) df$down <- ifelse(df$pw<0,1,0) df$hw <- df$hash-lag(df$hash,lag_dis) df$hw <- ifelse(df$hw==0,0.0001,df$hw) - -model1 <- (lm(log(hw)~as.factor(year(date))+as.factor(month(date))+lag(log(hash),30)+log(pw),data=df)) +library(lubridate) +df$month <- as.factor((month.abb[month(df$date)])) +df$year <- as.factor(year(df$date)) +model1 <- (lm(log(hw)~lag(hash,360)+year+month+log(pw),data=df)) +summary(model1) +acf(model1$resid) +pacf(model1$resid) +model1 <- (lm(log(hw)~as.factor(year(date))+as.factor(month(date))+log(pw),data=df)) +summary(lm(hw~as.factor(year(date))+as.factor(month(date))+lag(hash,lag_dis)+log(pw),data=df)) +summary(lm(hash~as.factor(year(date))+as.factor(month(date))+(hash,lag_dis)+log(pw),data=df)) +stargazer +summary(model1) +rm(model1) model1 <- (lm(log(hw)~as.factor(year(date))+as.factor(month(date))+log(pw),data=filter(df,year(df$date)>2012))) summary(model1) pacf(model1$resid) diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex index 3ce010b..0f1cc65 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ \item Bitcoin miners use electricity to earn profit \item No need for to ship to market \item Paying oil producers for waste gas - \item Contracts are about \(\frac{1}{3}\) whole sale price + \item Contracts are about \(\frac{1}{3}\) wholesale price \end{itemize} \column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width @@ -45,10 +45,10 @@ \begin{itemize} \item Increasing flaring rates \item Regulatory concerns about emissions - \item Most Bitcoin miner friendlily regulations in the US + \item Most Bitcoin miner friendly regulations in the US \item Cyclical low temperatures \item On grid prices - \item Major basins with diffrent GOR + \item Major basins with different GOR \end{itemize} \column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Conclusion.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Conclusion.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3e427f --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Conclusion.tex @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +%------------------------------------------------ + +\begin{frame}{Conclusion} +Stand in +\end{frame} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Data.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Data.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b6fd419 --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Data.tex @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +%------------------------------------------------ + +\begin{frame}{Data} +Stand in +\end{frame} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Maps.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Maps.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..30e7ea4 --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Maps.tex @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +%------------------------------------------------ +\begin{frame}{Realignment of Well Location} + + \begin{columns}[c] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment + \column{.5\textwidth} + + \begin{center} + \textbf{Wells Drilled Since 2013} + \end{center} + \includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.8\paperheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/wells.jpeg} + \column{.5\textwidth} + \begin{center} + \textbf{Subsidy Distribution in 2021} + \end{center} + + \includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.8\paperheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/subsidy.jpeg} + \end{columns} +\end{frame} + diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex index 8e02b43..f410919 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex @@ -14,9 +14,9 @@ Q_{O,b,t}=\beta_{1} Q_{O,b,t-1}+\beta_{2} P_{WTI,t-1}+\beta_{3} P_{HH,t-1}+\beta_{4}\theta_{t}+\gamma_{t,b}+\epsilon_{b,t} \end{equation} \end{block} -Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas International futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henery Hub spot market,\(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy ,and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monitray damage from natural disasters. +Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas International futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henery Hub spot market,\(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy ,and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monitary damage from natural disasters. -2SLS is used, with insturments of +\textbf{2SLS is used, with instruments of :} \begin{enumerate} \item{VAR model residuals of oil refinery volumes, and gas storage} \item{Regional population weighted cooling and heating degree days} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex index 6e3b5c6..1a93ebd 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex @@ -12,5 +12,5 @@ Where \(P{t} \) is price of the oil (o) or gas (g) at time t, \(q_{t}\) is the \end{block} Allowing a Bitcoin miner to purchase gas is equivalent to subsidy to oil production. -The size of the subisdy depends on the path of the GOR, the discount rate, decline rate of the well , and the max willingness to pay for gas of Bitcoin miners. +The size of the subsidy depends on the path of the GOR, the discount rate, decline rate of the well , and the max willingness to pay for gas of Bitcoin miners. \end{frame} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Results.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Results.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fc5bb56 --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Results.tex @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +%------------------------------------------------ + +\begin{frame}{Results} +Stand in +\end{frame} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Subsidy_Chart.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Subsidy_Chart.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4958b0f --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Subsidy_Chart.tex @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +%------------------------------------------------ +\begin{frame}[plain]{Increasing Relevance to Wyoming Oil and Gas Production} + \begin{center} + \includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.80\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/Subsidy_Bar_Chart.jpeg} + \footnotetext{Assumes market price is \$1.5 per MCF} + \end{center} +\end{frame} + diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Wyoming_Hookup.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Wyoming_Hookup.tex index 6e3401a..30e7ea4 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Sections/Wyoming_Hookup.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Wyoming_Hookup.tex @@ -1,10 +1,19 @@ %------------------------------------------------ -\begin{frame}{Selling Dissociated Gas is Becoming More Relevant} +\begin{frame}{Realignment of Well Location} - \begin{center} - \includegraphics[width=\paperwidth,height=0.8\paperheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/Gas_Hookups.png} - - \end{center} + \begin{columns}[c] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment + \column{.5\textwidth} + \begin{center} + \textbf{Wells Drilled Since 2013} + \end{center} + \includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.8\paperheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/wells.jpeg} + \column{.5\textwidth} + \begin{center} + \textbf{Subsidy Distribution in 2021} + \end{center} + + \includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.8\paperheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/subsidy.jpeg} + \end{columns} \end{frame} diff --git a/Bitcoin/img/Subsidy_Bar_Chart.jpeg b/Bitcoin/img/Subsidy_Bar_Chart.jpeg new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b27eb4 Binary files /dev/null and b/Bitcoin/img/Subsidy_Bar_Chart.jpeg differ diff --git a/Bitcoin/img/subsidy.jpeg b/Bitcoin/img/subsidy.jpeg new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f9cd4ec Binary files /dev/null and b/Bitcoin/img/subsidy.jpeg differ diff --git a/Bitcoin/img/wells.jpeg b/Bitcoin/img/wells.jpeg new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4fad95a Binary files /dev/null and b/Bitcoin/img/wells.jpeg differ