diff --git a/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex b/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex index 0be6b20..73d69e2 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex @@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ \documentclass[aspectratio=169,xcolor=dvipsnames]{beamer} \usetheme{SimpleDarkBlue} \usepackage{hyperref} \usepackage{graphicx} % Allows including images \usepackage{framed} +\usepackage{bm} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{booktabs} % Allows the use of \toprule, \midrule and \bottomrule in tables \usepackage{textpos} @@ -35,7 +36,6 @@ %------------------------------------------------ \section{Introduction \& Overview} \input{./Sections/Intro.tex} -\input{./Sections/Background.tex} \input{./Sections/Key_Questions.tex} \input{./Sections/Bitcoin_Incentives.tex} \input{./Sections/Mining_Structure.tex} @@ -43,6 +43,9 @@ \input{./Sections/Mining_elast.tex} \input{./Sections/Reg_elas.tex} \input{./Sections/Wyoming_Hookup.tex} +\input{./Sections/Oil_Structure.tex} +\input{./Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex} + \section{Theory} \section{History} %\subsection{Key Events} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex index 357af92..3ce010b 100644 --- a/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Background.tex @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ \end{frame} %------------------------------------------------ -\begin{frame}{Relvance to Wyoming} +\begin{frame}{Relevance to Wyoming} \begin{columns}[c] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment \column{.45\textwidth} % Left column and width @@ -46,8 +46,9 @@ \item Increasing flaring rates \item Regulatory concerns about emissions \item Most Bitcoin miner friendlily regulations in the US - \item Period of low temperature - \item Major basins have diffrent GOR + \item Cyclical low temperatures + \item On grid prices + \item Major basins with diffrent GOR \end{itemize} \column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e02b43 --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Assumption's } + \textbf{Assumptions} + \begin{enumerate} + \item{Engineer probabilistically knows the production path of each well } + \item{Marginal production choice is to drill a new well in a particular location} + \item{Future production is modeled by a best fit Arps model} + \item{Constant discount rate of 4.5\%} + \end{enumerate} +\end{frame} + +\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Econometric Model } + \begin{block}{Estimated model} + \begin{equation} + Q_{O,b,t}=\beta_{1} Q_{O,b,t-1}+\beta_{2} P_{WTI,t-1}+\beta_{3} P_{HH,t-1}+\beta_{4}\theta_{t}+\gamma_{t,b}+\epsilon_{b,t} + \end{equation} +\end{block} +Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas International futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henery Hub spot market,\(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy ,and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monitray damage from natural disasters. + +2SLS is used, with insturments of + \begin{enumerate} + \item{VAR model residuals of oil refinery volumes, and gas storage} + \item{Regional population weighted cooling and heating degree days} + \item{Sum of the standard of each instrument over the last 12 months} + \end{enumerate} + + + +\end{frame} diff --git a/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6e3b5c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Structure.tex @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production } + \begin{block}{Well Profitablity Before Bitcoin Mining} + \begin{equation} + \pi_{w}=\int_{t=0}^{\infty}\left[e^{-rt}\left(P_{o,t}\cdot q_{o,t}+\theta_{GL}\cdot P_{g,t}\cdot q_{g,t}-C(t)\right)\right]dt + \end{equation} +\end{block} +Where \(P{t} \) is price of the oil (o) or gas (g) at time t, \(q_{t}\) is the volume of the product produced, C(t) is the cost function, and \(\theta_{GL}\) is a dummy that is one if a gas hookup line attached to the well. + \begin{block}{Well Profitablity Post Bitcoin Mining} + \begin{equation} + \pi_{w}=\int_{t=0}^{\infty}\left[e^{-rt}\left(P_{o,t}\cdot q_{o,t}+(\theta_{GL}\cdot P_{g,t}+\bm{\right|\theta_{GL}-1\left|\cdot P_{g,btc}})\cdot q_{g,t}-C(t)\right)\right]dt + \end{equation} +\end{block} + +Allowing a Bitcoin miner to purchase gas is equivalent to subsidy to oil production. +The size of the subisdy depends on the path of the GOR, the discount rate, decline rate of the well , and the max willingness to pay for gas of Bitcoin miners. +\end{frame}