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9
Bitcoin/Bitcoin_and_Oil.tex
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@ -17,7 +17,8 @@
%----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
% TITLE PAGE
%----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\title[Bitcoin Mining, a Coproduct of Oil Production]{Bitcoin Mining, a Coproduct of Oil Production} % The short title appears at the bottom of every slide, the full title is only on the title page
%\title[Bitcoin Mining, a Coproduct of Oil Production]{Bitcoin Mining, a Coproduct of Oil Production} % The short title appears at the bottom of every slide, the full title is only on the title page
\title[Will Bitcoin Mining Create the Next Shale Boom?]{Will Bitcoin Mining Create the Next Shale Boom?} % The short title appears at the bottom of every slide, the full title is only on the title page
\subtitle{An Estimation of Long Run Regional Welfare Effects}
\author[Alex Gebben] {Alexander Gebben}
@ -49,13 +50,16 @@
\input{./Sections/Diagram.tex}
\input{./Sections/Mechanism.tex}
\section{Bitcoin Mining}
\input{./Sections/Bitcoin_Intro.tex}
\input{./Sections/Bitcoin_Incentives.tex}
\input{./Sections/Mining_Structure.tex}
\input{./Sections/Mining_Model.tex}
\input{./Sections/Mining_elast.tex}
\input{./Sections/Reg_elas.tex}
%\input{./Sections/Reg_elas.tex}
\section{Oil Market}
\input{./Sections/Oil_Intro.tex}
\input{./Sections/Oil_Structure.tex}
\input{./Sections/Oil_Assumptions.tex}
\input{./Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex}
\input{./Sections/Data.tex}
\section{Results}
@ -64,6 +68,7 @@
\input{./Sections/Results.tex}
\section{Conclusion}
\input{./Sections/Conclusion.tex}
\input{./Sections/Questions.tex}
\section{Bibliography}
\input{./Sections/bib.tex}

2
Bitcoin/Sections/About_me.tex
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@ -18,6 +18,6 @@
\column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width
\includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,height=\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/fish.jpg}
Cutbow caught at Rocky Mountain National Park
\tiny Greenback trout caught at Rocky Mountain National Park
\end{columns}
\end{frame}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Bitcoin_Incentives.tex
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@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
%------------------------------------------------
\begin{frame}{Bitcoin Mining Rewards}
Two sources of income for Bitcoin Miners, a Block Reward and a User fee
Two sources of income for Bitcoin Miners, a Block Reward and a User Fee.
\newline
\begin{center}
Constant Miner Reward
\textbf{Constant Miner Reward}
\begin{formal}
``The steady addition of a constant amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation. In our case, it is CPU time and electricity that is expended.''
\begin{list}{$-$}
@ -14,10 +14,10 @@
\end{center}
%Current reward is 6.5 Bitcoin
\begin{center}
Variable User Fees
\textbf{Variable User Fees}
\begin{formal}
%The incentive can also be funded with transaction fees. If the output value of a transaction is less than its input value, the difference is a transaction fee that is added to the incentive value of the block containing the transaction. Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free.
``The incentive can also be funded with transaction fees\ldots Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees''
``The incentive can also be funded with transaction fees\ldots Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees.''
\begin{list}{$-$}
\item{Satoshi Nakamoto}
\end{list}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Bitcoin_Intro.tex Normal file
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\begin{frame}[plain]{Understanding the Bitcoin Mining Market}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.85\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/Bitcoin_miners.jpg}
\end{center}
\end{frame}

17
Bitcoin/Sections/Conclusion.tex
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%------------------------------------------------
\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
The market for Bitcoin can create a new coproduct in oil production, acting like a subsidy. The revenue increase is sensitive to the price of bitcoin but is likely to persist even if the price of bitcoin drops.
\newline
% The market for Bitcoin can create a new coproduct in oil production, acting like a subsidy. The revenue increase is sensitive to the price of bitcoin but is likely to persist even if the price of bitcoin drops.
There is spatial variation in the size of the subsidy to oil production. The effect is predicted to shift the location of wells generally north, to lower population and higher GOR states.
\newline
Preliminary results show that states like Wyoming could see an increase in oil production of \(\approx 1.4\%\) due to the subsidy effect, while the U.S. has a lower average effect.
% There is spatial variation in the size of the subsidy to oil production. The effect is predicted to shift the location of wells generally north, to lower population and higher GOR states.
% Bitcoin mining is starting to be used to increase the profits of oil wells in remote areas. States like Wyoming could see an increase in oil production of \(\approx 1.4\%\) Thethe U.S. has a lower average effect.
Bitcoin miners are starting to use flared natural gas as an afforable source of electricity. This will have long run impact on the oil market.
\begin{itemize}
% \item{Bitcoin mining can become a coproduct to oil production}
\item{The price of Bitcoin affects the price paid for the natural gas}
\item{A subisdy effect will persist even when Bitcoin prices are low}
\item{The profitability depends on geology}
\item{Bitcoin mining will disproportionately effect states like Wyoming, and North Dakota}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

12
Bitcoin/Sections/Key_Questions.tex
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@ -3,8 +3,8 @@
\textbf{What are the long term regional welfare changes that can be expected as Bitcoin mining becomes a coproduct of oil?}
\begin{enumerate}
\item{How much extra revenue will oil producers receive?}
\item{How will levels of drilling change}
\item{How will the location of of drilling change}
\item{How will levels of drilling change?}
\item{How will the location of of drilling change?}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}
@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
\item{Identify the incentives}
\begin{itemize}
\item{Microeconomics model of Bitcoin mining}
\item{Upstream Oil production model}
\item{Upstream oil production model}
\end{itemize}
@ -21,13 +21,14 @@
\item{Find regional variation of the incentives}
\begin{itemize}
\item{Collect well attribute data}
\item{Estimate value of gas with Bitcoin mining}
\item{Estimate of gas produced in oil wells}
\item{Identify wells that do not have a gas pipeline}
\end{itemize}
\pause
\item{Identify responses of oil producers in each region}
\begin{itemize}
\item{Estimate response to oil and gas price changes}
\item{Econometric estimates state-basin level elasticity of supply}
\item{Econometric estimates at the state-basin level of elasticity of supply}
\item{Forecast new wells \& oil production}
\end{itemize}
\pause
@ -37,6 +38,5 @@
\item{Local externality counterfactual}
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\pause
%\textbf{Results in counterfactual oil production by geologic basin and state, in key metrics.}
\end{frame}

8
Bitcoin/Sections/Mechanism.tex
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@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
\begin{frame}{Mechanisms}
Bitcoin miners that paying for flared gas is equivalent to a subsidy on oil production
When Bitcoin miners pay for flared gas, the change in income is equivalent to a subsidy on oil production.
\newline
\newline
\textbf{Direct Effects}
\begin{enumerate}
\item{More drilling}
\item{Different location of wells}
\item{Bitcoin Miners clean the gas}
\item{Bitcoin miners clean the gas}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}{Outcomes}
@ -14,9 +14,9 @@ Bitcoin miners that paying for flared gas is equivalent to a subsidy on oil prod
\column{.5\textwidth} % Left column and width
\textbf{Certain Outcomes}
\begin{itemize}
\item{Increase number of wells}
\item{Increase in number of wells}
\item{Increase in profits}
\item{Decrease price of oil}
\item{Decrease in price of oil}
\item{Non-decreasing price of gas}
\end{itemize}

4
Bitcoin/Sections/Mining_Structure.tex
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\begin{frame}{Bitcoin Mining}
\begin{columns}[t] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment
\column{.45\textwidth} % Left column and width
\textbf{Rewards and fees}
\textbf{Rewards and Fees}
\begin{enumerate}
\item{Awarded by ``lottery''}
\item{Lottery completes \(\approx \) every 10 minutes}
@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
\mbox{}
\newline
\newline
\textbf{Model of single period returns}
\textbf{Model of Single Period Returns}
\newline
\(Revenue=\text{Total Reward}\cdot \frac{\text{Tickets Owned}}{\text{All Tickets}}\)
\newline

4
Bitcoin/Sections/Mining_elast.tex
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@ -7,11 +7,11 @@
Where \(R_{i,t}\) is the revenue of miner \(i\in I\), at time t. \(q_{i}\) is the hash power of a miner i, and \(Q^{-i}_{t}\) is the hash of all other miners. The miner reward is \(\eta\)
\begin{block}{Revenue change from t to t+1}
\begin{align*}
\begin{align}
% R_{i,t+1}-R_{i,t}=\eta \cdot\frac{q_{i}}{Q^{-i}_{t+1}-Q^{-i}_{t}}
% \\
\%\Delta R=\%\Delta P_{btc}(1-\epsilon)
\end{align*}
\end{align}
\end{block}
If the Bitcoin price elasticity of hash \(\epsilon\) is greater than one (elastic), than a decrease in price will \alert{increase profits} for the low marginal cost producers, like the miners using flared gas.
\end{frame}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Assumptions.tex Normal file
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\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Assumptions }
\textbf{Assumptions}
\begin{enumerate}
\item{Engineer probabilistically knows the production path of each well }
\item{Marginal production choice is to drill a new well in a particular location}
\item{Future production is modeled by a best fit Arps model}
\item{Constant discount rate of 4.5\%}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex
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\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Assumptions }
\textbf{Assumptions}
\begin{enumerate}
\item{Engineer probabilistically knows the production path of each well }
\item{Marginal production choice is to drill a new well in a particular location}
\item{Future production is modeled by a best fit Arps model}
\item{Constant discount rate of 4.5\%}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Econometric Model }
\begin{block}{Estimated model}
@ -14,14 +5,15 @@
Q_{O,b,t}=\beta_{1} Q_{O,b,t-1}+\beta_{2} P_{WTI,t-1}+\beta_{3} P_{HH,t-1}+\beta_{4}\theta_{t}+\gamma_{t,b}+\epsilon_{b,t}
\end{equation}
\end{block}
Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) is the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas Intermediate futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henry Hub spot market, \(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy, and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monetary damage from natural disasters.\newline
Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) is the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas Intermediate futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henry Hub spot market, \(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy, and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monetary damage from natural disasters.\footnote{(Gilbert and Gavin, 2020)}\newline
\textbf{Three-stage least square is used with instruments of:}
\textbf{Three-stage least squares is used with instruments of:}
\begin{enumerate}
\item{VAR model residuals of oil refinery volumes and gas storage}
\item{Oil refinery shocks}
\item{Natural gas storage shocks}
\item{Regional population weighted cooling and heating degree days}
\item{Sum of the standard of each instrument over the last 12 months}
\item{Sum of the standard deviation of each instrument over the preceding 12 months}
\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Oil_Intro.tex Normal file
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\begin{frame}[plain]{Understanding Oil Production Decisions}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.85\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/Well.jpg}
\end{center}
\end{frame}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Other_Research.tex
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\begin{itemize}
\item Ground water with USDA grant \newline (loos et al.,2022) % \footnote{(loos et al.,2022)} %
\item Critical materials
\item Wind energy\newline (economics and engineering)
\item Wind energy
\item CGE and electricity grids
\item Institutional economics in resource management
\end{itemize}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Questions.tex Normal file
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\begin{frame}[plain]{Questions}
\huge
\begin{center}
Thank you for your time
\end{center}
\end{frame}

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Bitcoin/Sections/Results.tex
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\column{.5\textwidth}
\tiny
\input{tables/reg.tex}\footnote{Year/Month fixed effects omitted}\footnote{All reported values are logged}\footnote{Single stage preliminary results do not cite}
\input{tables/reg.tex}\footnote{Year/Month fixed effects omitted}\footnote{All reported values are logged}
\column{.5\textwidth} % Left column and width
\normalsize
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\end{block}
\normalsize
\center
\(\beta_{1}=0.198\),\(\beta_{2}=0.143\)
%\(\beta_{1}=0.198\),\(\beta_{2}=0.143\)
\begin{equation*}
\Delta Q_{O}= 0.18\cdot \Delta P_{WTI}
\end{equation*}

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Bitcoin/tables/reg.tex
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@ -28,6 +28,6 @@ Residual Std. Error & 0.173 (df = 255) \\
F Statistic & 26.828$^{***}$ (df = 39; 255) \\
\hline
\hline \\[-1.8ex]
\textit{} & \multicolumn{1}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\
\textit{Note: Preliminary results} & \multicolumn{1}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\
\end{tabular}
\end{table}