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cac9613329
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1f370a1d29
@ -3,16 +3,13 @@
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%----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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\documentclass[aspectratio=169,xcolor=dvipsnames]{beamer} \usetheme{SimpleDarkBlue} \usepackage{hyperref}
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\usepackage{graphicx} % Allows including images
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\usepackage{adjustbox}
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\usepackage{framed}
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\usepackage{tikz}
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\usepackage{inputenc}
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\usetikzlibrary{shapes, shapes.geometric, arrows, positioning}
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\usepackage{adjustbox}
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\usepackage{bm}
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\usepackage{amssymb}
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\usepackage{booktabs} % Allows the use of \toprule, \midrule and \bottomrule in tables
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\usepackage{textpos}
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%{\includegraphics[width=\paperwidth,height=\paperheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/Mines_background1.pdf}}
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%----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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% TITLE PAGE
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@ -41,30 +38,22 @@
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%------------------------------------------------
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\section{Introduction \& Overview}
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\input{./Sections/Intro.tex}
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\input{./Sections/About_me.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Other_Research.tex}
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\section{Background}
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\input{./Sections/Background.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Key_Questions.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Diagram.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Mechanism.tex}
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\section{Bitcoin Mining}
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\input{./Sections/Bitcoin_Incentives.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Mining_Structure.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Mining_Model.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Mining_elast.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Reg_elas.tex}
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\section{Oil Market}
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\input{./Sections/Oil_Structure.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Oil_Econometrics.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Data.tex}
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\section{Results}
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\input{./Sections/Maps.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Subsidy_Chart.tex}
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\input{./Sections/Results.tex}
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\section{Conclusion}
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\input{./Sections/Conclusion.tex}
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\section{Bibliography}
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\input{./Sections/bib.tex}
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\section{Theory}
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\section{Econometric Strategy}
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\section{Data}
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\end{document}
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@ -1,23 +0,0 @@
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\begin{frame}{About Me}
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\begin{columns}[c] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment
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\column{.45\textwidth} % Left column and width
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\textbf{Experience}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item PhD candidate in Mineral and\newline Energy Economics % at Colorado School of Mines
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\item Energy and Mineral Economics, M.S.
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\item Petroleum Engineering, B.S.
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\item Worked as a data analyst for oil companies
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\end{itemize}
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\textbf{Personal}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Coding and Linux}
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\item{Fly fishing}
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\item{Foraging}
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\end{itemize}
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\column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width
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\includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,height=\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/fish.jpg}
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Cutbow caught at Rocky Mountain National Park
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\end{columns}
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\end{frame}
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@ -52,10 +52,9 @@
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\end{itemize}
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\column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width
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Percentage of U.S. Flaring by State
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\includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,height=\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/flared.jpeg}
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Filler: Include heat map of U.S. flaring
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Filler: Include heat map of US flaring
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\end{columns}
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@ -1,11 +1,5 @@
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%------------------------------------------------
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\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
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The market for Bitcoin can create a new coproduct in oil production, acting like a subsidy. The revenue increase is sensitive to the price of bitcoin but is likely to persist even if the price of bitcoin drops.
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\newline
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There is spatial variation in the size of the subsidy to oil production. The effect is predicted to shift the location of wells generally north, to lower population and higher GOR states.
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\newline
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Preliminary results show that states like Wyoming could see an increase in oil production of \(\approx 1.4\%\) due to the subsidy effect, while the U.S. has a lower average effect.
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Stand in
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\end{frame}
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@ -3,20 +3,23 @@
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\begin{enumerate}
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\item{Enverus}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{U.S. well data}
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\item{Gas hookup company}
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\item{SPUD date}
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\item{U.S. Well Data}
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\item{Gas Hookup Company}
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\item{SPUD Date}
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\end{itemize}
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\item{Energy Information Administrations}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Population weighted cooling degree days (CDD)}
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\item{Population weighted coooling degree days (CDD)}
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\item{Population weighted heating degree days (HDD)}
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\item{Storage Levels}
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\item{Price data}
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\end{itemize}
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\item{National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Disaster events}
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\item{Disaster Events}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{enumerate}
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\end{frame}
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@ -1,36 +0,0 @@
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\begin{frame}{Market Linkage}
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\tikzstyle{market} = [rectangle, rounded corners, text centered,draw=black,fill=orange!30,minimum width=3cm,minimum height=1cm]
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\tikzstyle{inputmarket} = [rectangle, rounded corners, text centered,draw=black,fill=green!30,minimum width=3cm,minimum height=1cm]
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\tikzstyle{output} = [rectangle, rounded corners, text centered,draw=black,fill=blue!30,minimum width=3cm,minimum height=1cm]
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\tikzstyle{both} = [rectangle, text centered,draw=black,fill=red!30,minimum width=3cm,minimum height=1cm]
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\tikzstyle{input} = [rectangle, text centered,draw=black,fill=blue!30]
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\tikzstyle{arrow} = [thick,dash dot, ->,>=stealth]
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\tikzstyle{arrowsolid} = [thick, ->,>=stealth]
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\begin{tikzpicture}[node distance=2cm]
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\node (Bitcoin)[market] {Bitcoin Mining};
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\node (Oil)[market,left of=Bitcoin,xshift=10cm] {Drilling Wells};
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\node (BTCP)[inputmarket,above of=Bitcoin] {Bitcoin Price};
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\node (OILP)[inputmarket,above of=Oil,xshift=4cm] {Oil Price};
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\node (GASP)[inputmarket,above of=Oil,xshift=.5cm] {Gas Price};
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\node (BGASP)[inputmarket, left of=GASP,xshift=-2cm] {Bitcoin Price for Gas};
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\node (Gas)[output,below of=Oil,xshift=-3.5cm] {Gas};
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\node (Oil_out)[output,below of=Oil] {Oil};
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\node (BTCOUT)[output,below of=Bitcoin] {Mining Hash};
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\node (Elect)[both,below of=Gas] {Electricity Price};
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\draw [arrow] (BGASP) -- (Oil);
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\draw [arrow] (BTCP) -- (Bitcoin);
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\draw [arrow] (OILP) -- (Oil);
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\draw [arrow] (GASP) -- (Oil);
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\draw [arrow] (Gas) -- (Elect);
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\draw [arrow] (Elect) -- (Bitcoin);
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\draw [arrow] (Bitcoin) -- (BGASP);
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\draw [arrowsolid] (Bitcoin) -- (BTCOUT);
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\draw [arrowsolid] (Oil) -- (Oil_out);
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\draw [arrowsolid] (Oil) -- (Gas);
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\end{tikzpicture}
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\end{frame}
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@ -1,32 +0,0 @@
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\begin{frame}{Mechanisms}
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Bitcoin miners that pay for flared gas subsidize oil production
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\newline
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\newline
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\textbf{Direct Effects}
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\begin{enumerate}
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\item{More drilling}
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\item{Different location of wells}
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\item{Bitcoin Miners clean the gas}
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\end{enumerate}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}{Outcomes}
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\begin{columns}[c] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment
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\column{.5\textwidth} % Left column and width
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\textbf{Certain Outcomes}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Increase number of wells}
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\item{Increase in profits}
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\item{Decrease price of oil}
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\item{Non-decreasing price of gas}
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\end{itemize}
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\column{.5\textwidth} % Left column and width
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\textbf{Uncertain Outcomes}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{More pollution: More wells drilled}
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\item{Less pollution: Gas is cleaned}
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\item{Localized benefits: New location of wells}
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\item{Localized costs: New location of wells}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{columns}
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\end{frame}
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@ -1,28 +1,5 @@
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\begin{frame}{Bitcoin Mining Market Structure}
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\begin{center}
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% \includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.8\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/SDMining.png}
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\begin{adjustbox}{width=\textwidth,height=0.85\textheight,keepaspectratio}
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\begin{tikzpicture}[domain=0:4]
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\def\qone{4}
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\draw[very thin,color=gray] (-0.1,-0.1) grid (11.9,6.7);
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\draw[- >,thick] (-0.2,0) -- (12,0) node[right] {$Hash$};
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\draw[- >,blue,thick] (5.2,0.6) parabola (9,5.5) node[left] {Supply} ;
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\draw[blue,thick] (0,0.3) -- (5.2,0.6) ;
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\fill[black] (5.2,0.6) circle (2pt);
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\draw (5.2,1) node[above] {Functional shift};
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\draw[red] (6,3.5) node[left] {Total Revenue (\$)};
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\draw[red] (5.5,3) node[left] {\(y=m\cdot x \)};
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\draw[cyan] (8,1) node[above] {MR=m};
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\draw[cyan] (10.5,2) node[above] {\(MR=m\cdot\)(1+x-k)};
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\draw[- >,dashed,thick] (9.4,0) -- (9.4,5.8) node[above] {Capital Constraint (k)};
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\draw[- >,thick] (0,-0.2) -- (0,6.9) node[above] {$\frac{\$}{BTC}$};
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\draw[- >,thick, color=red] (0,0)--(11.5,5.5) ;
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\draw[thick, color=cyan] (0,1)--(9.4,1) ;
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\draw[- >,thick, color=cyan] (9.4,1)--(11,2.0909) ;
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\end{tikzpicture}
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\end{adjustbox}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth,height=0.8\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/SDMining.png}
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\end{center}
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\end{frame}
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@ -13,5 +13,5 @@ Where \(R_{i,t}\) is the revenue of miner \(i\in I\), at time t. \(q_{i}\) is th
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\%\Delta R=\%\Delta P_{btc}(1-\epsilon)
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\end{align*}
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\end{block}
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If the Bitcoin price elasticity of hash \(\epsilon\) is greater than one (elastic), than a decrease in price will \alert{increase profits} for the low marginal cost producers, like the miners using flared gas.
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If the Bitcoin price elasticity of hash \(\epsilon\) is elastic, than a decrease in price will \textbf{\emph{increase}} revenue for low marginal cost producers.
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\end{frame}
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@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Econometric Model }
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\begin{block}{Estimated model}
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\begin{block}{Long Run Effect on Oil Produced}
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\begin{equation}
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Q_{O,b,t}=\beta_{1} Q_{O,b,t-1}+\beta_{2} P_{WTI,t-1}+\beta_{3} P_{HH,t-1}+\beta_{4}\theta_{t}+\gamma_{t,b}+\epsilon_{b,t}
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\end{equation}
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@ -17,9 +17,9 @@
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Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) is the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas Intermediate futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henry Hub spot market, \(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy, and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monetary damage from natural disasters.\newline
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\textbf{Three-stage least square is used with instruments of:}
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\textbf{Two-stage Least Square is used, with instruments of:}
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\begin{enumerate}
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\item{VAR model residuals of oil refinery volumes and gas storage}
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\item{VAR model residuals of oil refinery volumes, and gas storage}
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\item{Regional population weighted cooling and heating degree days}
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\item{Sum of the standard of each instrument over the last 12 months}
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\end{enumerate}
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@ -1,18 +0,0 @@
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\begin{frame}{Other Research}
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\begin{columns}[c] % The "c" option specifies centered vertical alignment while the "t" option is used for top vertical alignment
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\column{.45\textwidth} % Left column and width
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\textbf{Previous Topics of Research}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item Ground water with USDA grant \newline (loos et al.,2022) % \footnote{(loos et al.,2022)} %
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\item Critical materials
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\item Wind energy\newline (economics and engineering)
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\item CGE and electricity grids
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\item Institutional economics in resource management
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\end{itemize}
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\column{.5\textwidth} % Right column and width
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% \scalebox{.5}{\includegraphics{./img/SLV_Map.png} % scales both width and height by 0.5
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\includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,height=\textheight,keepaspectratio]{./img/SLV_Map.png}
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% \scalebox{.1}{\includegraphics{./img/SLV_Map.png}} % scales both width and height by 0.5
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\end{columns}
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\end{frame}
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@ -27,18 +27,21 @@
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\end{columns}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}{Initial Estimates}
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The nation wide average subsidy equivalent is estimated to be 0.98\%
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\newline
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\newline
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\textbf{United States}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Subsidy of 0.98\% to WTI }
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\item{\(\Delta Q_{US}\approx 0.18\%\)}
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\end{itemize}
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\
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\newline
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\textbf{Wyoming}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Subsidy of 2.13\% to WTI }
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\item{\(\Delta Q_{Wy}\approx 1.43\% \)\footnote{Elasticity of 0.67 (Mason et all,2017)}}
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\item{\(\Delta Q_{Wy}\approx 1.43\%\)}
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\end{itemize}
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Wyoming subsidy equivalent is estimated to be 2.13\%. Elasticity estimates in Wyoming range from 0.61 to 0.73 .
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\end{frame}
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@ -4,19 +4,9 @@
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% Beamer does not support BibTeX so references must be inserted manually as below
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\footnotesize{
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\begin{thebibliography}{99}
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\bibitem[mason]{p1} Mason, Roberts (2018)
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\newblock Price Elasticity of Supply and Productivity: An Analysis of Natural Gas Wells in Wyoming
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\newblock \emph{The Energy Journal} 39(S1), 79 -- 101.
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%-------
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\bibitem[gilbert]{p2} Gilbert, Gavin (2020)
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\newblock Drill-Bit Parity: Supply-Side Links in Oil and Gas Markets
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\newblock \emph{Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists} 7(S4), 619 -- 658.
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%-------
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\bibitem[loos]{p3} Loos, Gebben et al. (2022)
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\newblock Individual to collective adaptation through incremental change in Colorado groundwater governance
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\newblock \emph{Frontiers in Environmental Science} (Sec. Environmental Economics and Management ) V10
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\bibitem[Smith, 2012]{p1} John Smith (2012)
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\newblock Title of the publication
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\newblock \emph{Journal Name} 12(3), 45 -- 678.
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\end{thebibliography}
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}
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\end{frame}
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@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
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% Table created by stargazer v.5.2.3 by Marek Hlavac, Social Policy Institute. E-mail: marek.hlavac at gmail.com
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% Date and time: Mon, Oct 31, 2022 - 04:40:50 PM
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\begin{table}[!htbp] \centering
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\caption{U.S. Elasticity of Oil Supply}
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\caption{US Elasticity of Oil Supply}
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\label{}
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\begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{1pt}}lc}
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\\[-1.8ex]\hline
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Block a user