
\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Econometric Model }
	\begin{block}{Estimated model}
		\begin{equation}
			Q_{O,b,t}=\beta_{1} Q_{O,b,t-1}+\beta_{2} P_{WTI,t-1}+\beta_{3} P_{HH,t-1}+\beta_{4}\theta_{t}+\gamma_{t,b}+\epsilon_{b,t}  
	\end{equation}
\end{block}
Where \(Q_{O,b,t}\) is the net present oil produced in a basin state pair b, at time t, \(P_{WTI}\) is the West Texas Intermediate futures price, \(P_{HH}\) is the futures price of the Henry Hub spot market, \(\theta_{t}\) is a month dummy, and \(\gamma_{b,t}\) is a variable that represents the amount of monetary damage from natural disasters.\footnote{(Gilbert and Gavin, 2020)}\newline 


\textbf{Three-stage least squares is used with instruments of:}
	\begin{enumerate}
		\item{Oil refinery shocks}
		\item{Natural gas storage shocks}
		\item{Regional population weighted cooling and heating degree days}
		\item{Sum of the standard deviation of each instrument over the preceding 12 months}
	\end{enumerate}

\end{frame}



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\begin{frame}{Oil and Gas Production: Model Sequence of Events}
	\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}
	\draw [thick,decorate,decoration={brace,amplitude=6pt,raise=0pt}] (0.25,0.15) -- (3.25,0.15);
	1.25
	\node[align=center] at (2.4,0.55) {t};
	\node[align=center] at (0,0.95) {\(Y_{t-1}\)};
	\draw [thick,->] (0,.75) -- (0,0.15);
	\node[align=center] at (2.25,.95) {\(Q_{energy}\)};
	\draw [thick,->] (2.25,.75) -- (2.25,0.15);
	\draw [thick,->] (2.25,-0.75) -- (2.25,-0.15);
	\node[align=center] at (2.25,-0.95) {\(\theta_{oil}\)};

	\node[align=center] at (3.15,0.55) {t+1};
	\draw [thick,decorate,decoration={brace,amplitude=6pt,raise=0pt}] (2.5,0.15) -- (3.75,0.15);
	\draw [thick,->] (4,0.85) -- (4,0.15);
	\node[align=center] at (6.25,0.6) {Infectious period};
	\draw [thick,->] (8.25,0.85) -- (8.25,0.15);
	\node[align=center] at (9.15,0.5) {Immune\\stage};
	\draw [thick,decorate,decoration={brace,amplitude=6pt,raise=0pt}] (4.25,0.15) -- (8,0.15);
	\draw [thick,->] (0,0) -- (10,0);
	\draw [thick,->] (4.6,-0.85) -- (4.6,-0.15);
	\draw [thick,->] (7.65,-0.4) -- (7.65,-0.15);
	\draw [thick,decorate,decoration={brace,amplitude=6pt,raise=0pt,mirror}] (4.75,-0.15) -- (7.5,-0.15);
	\node[align=center] at (6.25,-0.85) {Symptomatic\\period};
	\node[align=center] at (4.6,-1.3) {Onset of\\symptoms};
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}
\end{frame}
