279 lines
10 KiB
TeX
279 lines
10 KiB
TeX
\begin{frame}{Chapter I}
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\huge
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\bf{Collective Action to Manage Agricultural Groundwater.}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Guiding Questions}
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\only<1-5>{\Large
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\onslide<1->{Was collective action in the San Luis Valley (SLV) undertaken primarily to improve farm profits or to avoid institutional risk?}
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\vfill
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\large
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\onslide<2->{Hedonic difference-in-difference of the formation of the water conservation Subdistrict 1 (Sbd1). Farm census DiD of revenue and operating costs. .}
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\begin{itemize}
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\onslide<3->{\item{Collective action was a response to risk of well curtailment by Colorado.}}
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\onslide<4->{\item{Farm values declined by 43\% when Sbd1 formed.}}
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\onslide<5->{\item{Yearly farm profits fall by 20\%.}}
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\end{itemize}
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}
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\only<6->{
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\Large How have pumping fees and other self imposed groundwater policies changed farmer welfare?
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\vfill
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\large
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\onslide<7->{Event study of farm land prices.}
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\begin{itemize}
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\onslide<8->{\item{Sbd1 land values increase as the polcies are adopted.}}
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\onslide<9->{\item{Rebound of 85\% by 2020.}}
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\end{itemize}
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}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\subsection{Background}
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\begin{frame}{Subdistrict 1 background: formation and policy}
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Subdistrict 1 is granted authority through the larger Rio Grande Water Conservation District (RGWCD) and was formed in 2006.
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\begin{itemize}
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\onslide<2->{\item{Majority vote by farms required for formation}}
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\onslide<3->{\item{Pumping fee in 2011}}
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\onslide<4->{\item{The fee lowered water use by 33\% \citep{smith2017}}}
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\onslide<5->{\item{Fees fund administration, conservation, and augmentation}}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Why initiate collective action?}
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\onslide<1->{
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\begin{columns}
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\begin{column}[c]{0.5\textwidth}
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\textbf{Externalities}
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\begin{itemize}
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%\item{Tragedy of the commons \citep{hardin1968,gisser1980}}
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%\item{Cones of depression \citep{pfeiffer2012}}
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%\item{Salinity and subsidence \citep{knapp2006}}
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\item{Tragedy of the commons }
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\item{Cones of depression }
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\item{Salinity and subsidence}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{column}
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\begin{column}[c]{0.5\textwidth}
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\newline
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\textbf{Institutional threat}
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\begin{itemize}
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%\setlength\itemsep{2em}
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\item{Prior appropriations}
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\item{Seniority of wells}
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\item{State compacts}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{column}
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\end{columns}
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}
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\vfill
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\onslide<2->{
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\centering
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\textbf{Reasons to self organize}
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\begin{enumerate}
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\item{Piguivian tax
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\citep{pigou1924}}
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\item{Crowding in norms
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\citep{smith2018}}
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\item{Avoid State intervention}
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\item{Risk aversion and institutional shifts
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\citep{menapace2013,bredehoeft1983}}
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\end{enumerate}
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}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Location of Subdistrict 1 wells}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/SLV_WELL_MAP.png}
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\begin{spacing}{0}
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\hfill\tiny Map creation tool from \citep{coloradodivisionofwaterresourcesStructures2024}\end{spacing}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{San Luis Valley Agriculture}
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\begin{columns}
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\begin{column}{0.57\textwidth}
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\begin{itemize}
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\onslide<2->{\item{350,000 irrigated acres by 1890 \citep{carlson1973}}}
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\onslide<3->{\item{Groundwater rights over appropriated in 1900 \citep{kuenhold2006}}}
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\onslide<4->{\item{2,704 wells by 1940 \citep{cody2015}}}
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\onslide<5->{\item{26\% of employment still comes from agricultural \citep{sanluisvalleydevelopmentresourcesgroup2024}}}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{column}
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%%%%%
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\begin{column}{0.43\textwidth}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/farmers.jpg}
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\newline
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\tiny \hfill San Luis Valley potato harvest \citep{rothsteinUntitledPhotoPossibly1939}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/potatoe.jpg}
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\newline
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\tiny \hfill San Luis Valley potato field \citep{krakel2024}
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\end{column}
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\end{columns}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Shortages and Legal Obstacles}
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\begin{columns}
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\begin{column}{0.6\textwidth}
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\begin{itemize}
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\onslide<2->{\item{Rio Grande Water Conservation District (RGWDCD) formed in 1976}}
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\onslide<3->{\item{1984 lawsuit prevented new wells protected the status quo \citep{cody2015}}}
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\onslide<4->{\item{Court ruling changed well operation rules \citep{coats2003}}}
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\onslide<5->{\item{3,000 wells in the South Platte were curtailed in 2004.\citep{cechWellShutdownSituation2008,loos2022}}}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{column}
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\begin{column}{0.4\textwidth}
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\only<1-3>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/RGWCD_LOGO.jpg}}
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\only<4->{\fbox{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/GASP_1983.pdf}}
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\fbox{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/GASP_2008.pdf}}
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\tiny \citep{kryloffCSUGASPRecords2009}
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}
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\end{column}
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\end{columns}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Water level of the San Luis Valley confined aquifer}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_II/Figures/GW_LEVEL.pdf}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\subsection{Data}
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\begin{frame}{Data}
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\only<1>{
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\begin{columns}
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\begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
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\textbf{County assessors office}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Sales records}
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\item{Names}
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\item{Dates}
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\item{Valuation}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{column}
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\begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
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\textbf{Colorado Hydrobase}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Crop area}
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\item{Crop Types}
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\item{Water sources}
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\item{Well data}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{column}
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\end{columns}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{figure}
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\subfloat[Crop Parcels and Legal Parcels]{
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\begin{minipage}[c][0.75\width]{
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0.45\textwidth}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/pre_proc.png}
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\end{minipage}}
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\hfill
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\subfloat[Intersection of Parcels]{
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\begin{minipage}[c][0.75\width]{
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0.45\textwidth}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/post_proc.png}
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\end{minipage}}
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\end{figure}
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}
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\only<2>{
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\begin{figure}%
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.95\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/SLV_Map.png}
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\end{figure}%
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}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Data: weighting and matching }
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Generalized boosted machine learning model for propensity score. Used to match and weight records \citep{mccaffrey2016}.
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\vfill
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/Weighted_Balance.png}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\subsection{Econometrics}
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\begin{frame}{Econometrics: hedonic model}
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\begin{equation*}\label{mainreg}
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Y_{i,t}=Sbd_i\cdot(1+\sum_{s=1}^S(\theta_{s(i,t)}))+Ditch_{i}+County_{i}+\tau_{t}+\beta \cdot X_{i,t}+\epsilon_{i,t}
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\end{equation*}
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\(Y_{i,t}\) is the natural log of the sale price. \(Sbd_i\) is an indicator that a parcel is within a specific subdistrict boundary.
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\(Ditch_i\) is a series of indicators if a parcel is using specific ditches in the SLV.
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\(S(i,t)\) identifies a shock for the subdistrict of parcel i at time t.
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\(\theta_{S(t)}\) is an indicator variable for being post-shock. \(\tau\) is the year fixed effect.
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\(X_{i,t}\) is an array of attributes that have coefficients \(\beta\).
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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%\begin{frame}
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% \input{Chapter_I/tables/SBD_CONT_BAL_TBL.tex}
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%\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Econometrics: fixed effect model}
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\begin{equation*}
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\label{fixedreg}
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Y_{i,t}=\gamma_i+Sbd_i\cdot\theta_{S(i,t)}+\tau_{t}+\epsilon_{i,t}
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\end{equation*}
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The parcel fixed effect $\gamma_i$ captures unobserved time invariant attributes of the parcel.$\tau_t$ captures the remaining variation for attributes.
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}[plain]
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\only<1>{\input{Chapter_I/tables/All_Models.tex}}
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\only<2>{\input{Chapter_I/tables/All_Models_Small.tex}}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}[plain]
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\centering
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\only<1>{
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/Iplot_Raw.png}
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\caption{Event study of Subdistrict One formation}\label{REG:EVENTW}
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\end{figure}
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}
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\only<2>{
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\begin{figure}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{Chapter_I/images/Iplot_Weighted.png}
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\caption{Event study of Subdistrict One formation with parcel weighting}\label{REG:EVENTW}
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\end{figure}
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}
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Difference-in-differences estimates, microdata}
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\begin{figure}
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\subfloat[Land use]{
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\resizebox{0.4\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics[width=.99\textwidth]{Chapter_I/tables_figures/Diff_land.pdf}}
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}
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\subfloat[Total effects]{
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\resizebox{0.4\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics[width=.99\textwidth]{Chapter_I/tables_figures/Diff_totals.pdf}}
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}\\
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%\newline
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\subfloat[Revenue effects]{
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\resizebox{0.4\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics[width=.99\textwidth]{Chapter_I/tables_figures/Diff_rev.pdf}}
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}
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\subfloat[Expense effects]{
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\resizebox{0.4\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics[width=.99\textwidth]{Chapter_I/tables_figures/Diff_expense.pdf}}
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}
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% \caption{Difference-in-differences estimates, microdata}\label{fig:micro_data_graphs}
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\end{figure}
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\small The coefficient is relative to the baseline year of 2002.
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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\begin{frame}{Contemporary Accounts}
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\begin{block}{Ralph Curtis, former manager of RGWCD}``They’ve pumped the bottom out of the barrel. And we are trying to get a groundwater management subdistrict up there, and it is like pulling teeth...A lot of people will say, ‘Oh, they will never come in here and regulate wells.’ And Hal Simpson [the State Engineer] has told them several times, ‘If you don’t do something, I’m going to be here'." \tiny\citep{ralphcurtis2005}\end{block}
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\begin{block}{Ray Wright, President of RGWCD}
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``I think it is inevitable that ground in the SLV is going to be fallowed whether by subdistricts or CREP or well regulation or simply running out of adequate supplies of water....I am in a position to understand what we are facing whether it feels like ‘Chicken Little’ or not. [We have] to try to come to some resolution without a wreck." \tiny\citep{heide2005}\end{block}
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\vfill
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}[plain]
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\huge
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Conclusion
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\end{frame}
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%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
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