24 lines
4.3 KiB
TeX
24 lines
4.3 KiB
TeX
\section{Data}
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The technical feasibility reports of uranium mines in Wyoming are reviewed to create a data set of mine operation plans. The type of data reported varies, based on the jurisdiction of the companies headquarters, and the phase in development of the cite. Projects under the purview of the \ac{NRC}. In total the technical reports of 15 Wyoming in situ operations were reviewed. Of these only five provide sufficient cost estimates for analysis \footnote{Seven projects are in the preliminary evaluation phase, or are otherwise not required to provided economic estimates by the State of Wyoming. Three projects are in the development stage and provide geologic data, as well as exploration costs, but not operating plans. The remaining five projects provide enough data to establish a net present cost estimate of groundwater Restoration.}. These projects have some spatial diversity coming from five different counties and at least to major different uranium plays.
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The \ac{CNSC} requires mines to provide technical reports before beginning operation. These reports include a schedule of mine operation, with project drilling, restoration, and labor costs in each year, along with forecasted revenues from uranium recovery. While not all Wyoming mines are required to report this information, four operating projects in the State are fully or partially owned by a Canadian mining company such as Cameco.
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The operations with these fillings include the Gas Hills Project , the Lost Creek Project, the Shirley basin project, and the Moores Ranch Project \citep{moores2021,westernwaterconsultantsinc2024,westernwaterconsultantsinc2024a,malensek2022}. The final report comes from a \ac{NRC} surety bond filling for the Strata Ross Project \citep{strataenergyinc.2010,strataenergyinc.2010a}.
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The \ac{NPV} of each category of cost and revenue is discounted with a baseline assumption of 10\% private return. A cash flow model for each mine is created, that allows \ac{NPV} to be calculated by adjusting the variables of uranium price, restoration costs, internal return rate, operating costs, and up front costs. This can used to create sensitivity analysis of profits.
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To compare restoration of in situ mines to the value of land effected assessed land value data in Wyoming was collected \citep{wyomingdepartmentofrevenue2024}. The map of these parcels was overlaid with the geologic distribution of uranium in the State \citep{eia2020a}.
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To provide additional information about the potential starting groundwater quality, total dissolved solids of wells less than 200 feet deep was collected, and values were interpolated to create a spatial distribution of initial dissolved solid levels. This is important because aquifers with initially low groundwater quality have a lower restoration cost. For example, Australia has similar aquifer restoration rules as the U.S. but the initial groundwater quality is so low, that in practice no restoration is required \citep{commonwealthofaustralia2010}. A map of this data is created in \cref{MAP}.
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\begin{figure}[htp]
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\centering
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\caption{Wyoming Uranium Reserves and Water Quality}
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\label{MAP}
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\includegraphics[width=0.6\textwidth]{./Images/TDS_Wyoming.pdf}
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\end{figure}
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As will be seen in the cost comparison, the uranium resources in Wyoming are located in rural areas where land is cheap. However, they are also situated on top of relatively clean aquifers. From an economic perspective a clean but unused aquifer should not be treated differently than a highly polluted aquifer. However, this higher groundwater quality leads to high restoration costs to be applied.
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For use in the time series regression, two sets of data are collected from the \ac{EIA} uranium marketing series, the contract price of uranium is collected iteratively going back to 1992\footnote{Source of \citep{eia1993,eia1994,eia1995,eia1996,eia1997,eia1998,eia1999,eia2000,eia2001,eia2002,eia2003,eia2004,eia2005a,eia2006a,eia2007a,eia2008a,eia2009a,eia2010b,eia2011a,eia2012a,eia2013,eia2014a,eia2015b,eia2016a,eia2017c,eia2018a,eia2019a,eia2020b,eia2021a,eia2022b,eia2023b}}. The weighted average contract price is prefered over the spot market price, since this more closely aligns with long run expectation of uranium price. Uranium concentrate production and total the total inventories of yellow cake held by power plants are provided by the \ac{EIA} \citep{eia2024}.
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