Merge branch 'master' of git.gebben.org:alex/Peabody

Coal_Regression.r

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+library(tidyverse)
+library(fixest)
+PLANTS <- c("Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center","The Bull Run Fossil Plant,2018","Sherburne County Generating Station",'Wygen III','Wygen II',"Mesaba Phase 1","Mesaba Phase 2","Kemper","Dry Fork Power Station","Two Elk","Niel Simpson 2","Laramie River Station (Phase 1 and 2)","Laramie River Station (All Phases)","Laramie River Station (NEW)","Jim Bridger Unit 4")
+WY <- c(0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1)
+CAPACITY <- c(668,881,2400,100,100,600,1200,582,422,250,80,1000,1500,1800,500)
+YEAR <- c(2012,1966,1976,2007,2005,2009,2009,2010,2006,1997,1991,1975,1975,2018,1976)
+JOBS <- c(153,125,300,16,20,107,185,90,75,50,44,96,200,300,65)
+STATUS <- c("DECOM","DECOM","DECOM","ADDTION","ADDTION","CANCELLED","CANCELLED","CANCELLED","OPERATING","CANCELLED","OPERATING","OPERATING","OPERATING","OPERATING","ADDTION") 
+
+DATA <- cbind(PLANTS,CAPACITY,WY,YEAR,STATUS,JOBS) %>% as_tibble %>% mutate(CAPACITY=as.numeric(CAPACITY),YEAR=as.numeric(YEAR),JOBS=as.numeric(JOBS),WY=as.numeric(WY))
+rm(WY,CAPACITY,YEAR,JOBS,STATUS)
+DATA <- DATA %>% mutate(DECOM=ifelse(STATUS=='DECOM',1,0))
+DATA <- DATA %>% mutate(ADD=ifelse(STATUS=='ADDTION',1,0))
+#DATA <- DATA %>% filter(PLANTS!="Laramie River Station (NEW)")
+feols(log(JOBS)~YEAR+log(CAPACITY)|STATUS+WY,cluster='WY',DATA )
+feols(JOBS~YEAR+log(CAPACITY)|STATUS+WY,DATA )
+feols(log(JOBS)~YEAR+CAPACITY|STATUS+WY,DATA )
+MOD1 <- feols(JOBS~YEAR+CAPACITY|ADD+DECOM+WY,cluster='WY',DATA )
+MOD1 
+MOD2 <- feols(log(JOBS)~YEAR+log(CAPACITY)|STATUS+WY,cluster='WY',DATA )
+
+predict(MOD1,DATA[4,] %>% mutate(CAPACITY=4800,YEAR=2026,STATUS='OPERATING',ADD=0))
+exp(predict(MOD2,DATA[4,] %>% mutate(CAPACITY=4800,YEAR=2026,STATUS='OPERATING',ADD=0)))
+
+
+
+
+ggplot(DATA,aes(x=CAPACITY,y=JOBS))+geom_point()
+ggplot(DATA,aes(x=CAPACITY,y=RESID))+geom_point()
+
+