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Alex Gebben Work 2025-09-30 17:14:37 -06:00
parent 5122fe26b6
commit 60b66b9ccf
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ARMA_Pop.r
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@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ DF <- FRED_GET('WYLINC3POP','LN_POP') %>% select(-YEAR)
TS <- 1000*ts(DF,start=c(1970),end=c(2024),frequency=1) TS <- 1000*ts(DF,start=c(1970),end=c(2024),frequency=1)
BC <- BoxCox.lambda(TS) BC <- BoxCox.lambda(TS)
MODEL <- auto.arima(TS, lambda = BC) MODEL <- auto.arima(TS, lambda = BC)
forecast(MODEL,h=20)
plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast") plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast")
#####Plan and ideas #####Plan and ideas
@ -20,3 +20,5 @@ plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast")
#6) Compare to the ARMA percentile #6) Compare to the ARMA percentile
#7) Adjust the ARMA up assuming some of these outputs are known. #7) Adjust the ARMA up assuming some of these outputs are known.
####Other ideas, develop larger plan? Maybe look at decline in other industries as a proportion of employment ####Other ideas, develop larger plan? Maybe look at decline in other industries as a proportion of employment
###Seperate out Kemmer and Diamondville? http://eadiv.state.wy.us/pop/wyc&sc40.htm