From a37b9935906ee94e174bb52d421306f138b2f9bb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Alex Gebben Work Date: Wed, 1 Oct 2025 12:20:30 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] Added pop to emp multiplier --- ARMA_Pop.r | 10 ++++++++++ 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+) diff --git a/ARMA_Pop.r b/ARMA_Pop.r index 163d1ce..8f0b059 100644 --- a/ARMA_Pop.r +++ b/ARMA_Pop.r @@ -5,11 +5,18 @@ source("Scripts/Functions.r") #source("Scripts/Load_Wyoming_Web_Data.r") DF <- FRED_GET('WYLINC3POP','LN_POP') %>% select(-YEAR) + TS <- 1000*ts(DF,start=c(1970),end=c(2024),frequency=1) BC <- BoxCox.lambda(TS) MODEL <- auto.arima(TS, lambda = BC) forecast(MODEL,h=20) plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast") +####Employment to pop ratio +EMP <- FRED_GET('LAUCN560230000000005','EMP') %>% inner_join(FRED_GET('WYLINC3POP','LN_POP')) %>% mutate(LN_POP=1000*LN_POP) +EMP <- EMP %>% mutate(RATIO=LN_POP/EMP) +ggplot(aes(x=YEAR,y=RATIO),data=EMP)+geom_line() +AVG_POP_RATIO <- mean(EMP$RATIO) +SD_POP_RATIO <- sd(EMP$RATIO) #####Plan and ideas #1) Review IMPLAN for industry multipliers @@ -19,6 +26,9 @@ plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast") #5) Develop survey to estimate likelihood of new projects #6) Compare to the ARMA percentile #7) Adjust the ARMA up assuming some of these outputs are known. +#8) Occupancy rate from IMPLAN as a housing cap when projecting +#9) Model housing construciton rate (Maybe) +#10) Employment rate by age in IMPLAN ####Other ideas, develop larger plan? Maybe look at decline in other industries as a proportion of employment ###Seperate out Kemmer and Diamondville? http://eadiv.state.wy.us/pop/wyc&sc40.htm