16 lines
741 B
R
16 lines
741 B
R
#Births,PREV_BIRTH,PREV_TWO_BIRTH,Min_Birth_Group,Year,County
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#Uncomment to test the function step by step
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#REG_MODEL <- MOD_BIRTHS;REG_DATA <- FIRST_PREDICT_YEAR_POPULATION_DATA;NUM_SIMS=1
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BIRTH_SIM <- function(REG_MODEL,REG_DATA,NUM_SIMS=1){
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C_PREDICT <- predict(REG_MODEL,REG_DATA,interval = "prediction",level=0.95)
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PRED_MEAN <- C_PREDICT$fit
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SE_PRED <- (C_PREDICT$ci_high-C_PREDICT$ci_low)/3.92
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YEAR <- REG_DATA %>% pull(Year) %>% unique
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BIRTHS <- round(exp(rnorm(NUM_SIMS,mean=PRED_MEAN,sd=SE_PRED)))
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MALE <- sapply(1:NUM_SIMS,function(x){ rbinom(1,BIRTHS[x],prob=0.5)})
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RES <- cbind(rep(YEAR,NUM_SIMS),rep(0,NUM_SIMS),MALE,BIRTHS-MALE) %>% as_tibble
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colnames(RES) <- c("Year","Age","Num_Male","Num_Female")
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return(RES)
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}
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