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Added pop to emp multiplier

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Alex Gebben Work 2025-10-01 12:20:30 -06:00
parent 60b66b9ccf
commit a37b993590
1 changed files with 10 additions and 0 deletions
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ARMA_Pop.r
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@ -5,11 +5,18 @@ source("Scripts/Functions.r")
#source("Scripts/Load_Wyoming_Web_Data.r")
DF <- FRED_GET('WYLINC3POP','LN_POP') %>% select(-YEAR)
TS <- 1000*ts(DF,start=c(1970),end=c(2024),frequency=1)
BC <- BoxCox.lambda(TS)
MODEL <- auto.arima(TS, lambda = BC)
forecast(MODEL,h=20)
plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast")
####Employment to pop ratio
EMP <- FRED_GET('LAUCN560230000000005','EMP') %>% inner_join(FRED_GET('WYLINC3POP','LN_POP')) %>% mutate(LN_POP=1000*LN_POP)
EMP <- EMP %>% mutate(RATIO=LN_POP/EMP)
ggplot(aes(x=YEAR,y=RATIO),data=EMP)+geom_line()
AVG_POP_RATIO <- mean(EMP$RATIO)
SD_POP_RATIO <- sd(EMP$RATIO)
#####Plan and ideas
#1) Review IMPLAN for industry multipliers
@ -19,6 +26,9 @@ plot(forecast(MODEL,h=35),main="Lincoln County Population Forecast")
#5) Develop survey to estimate likelihood of new projects
#6) Compare to the ARMA percentile
#7) Adjust the ARMA up assuming some of these outputs are known.
#8) Occupancy rate from IMPLAN as a housing cap when projecting
#9) Model housing construciton rate (Maybe)
#10) Employment rate by age in IMPLAN
####Other ideas, develop larger plan? Maybe look at decline in other industries as a proportion of employment
###Seperate out Kemmer and Diamondville? http://eadiv.state.wy.us/pop/wyc&sc40.htm